Budget does not count the contributions of immigration visas

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Created on Tuesday, 15 May 2012 17:21

Written by Editorial staff

With the recent release of the Federal Budget on May 8, a number of critics have pointed out that the papers fail to take into account a number of key criteria.

According to finance journalist and industry commentator Michael Pascoe, the facts and figures surrounding net overseas migration have not been given proper review.

In an article written for Business Day on May 14, Mr Pascoe asks how the 30 per cent growth rate in this area during the previous six months have been factored into the government's plans.

He claims that the fact these figures - and several others relating to population growth - are "absent" from the Budget "looks more than a little suspicious", particularly given that it forms the basis for a number of drivers that have the potential to provide the government with a surplus.

Mr Pascoe asserted: "While Treasury's Budget Paper No. 1 spells out any number of assumptions that underpin the headline economic forecasts, population growth - a key cause and effect of economic growth - is missing.

"The only oblique reference is to the projections of the 2010 Intergenerational Report, which held that Australia's population growth was in the process of slowing from its 40-year average of 1.4 per cent."

The financial expert when on to explain that while the budget does mention that the number of immigration visas available through the "official programs" has been increased to 190,000, this figure gives little indication of the current state of net movements or how they could impact on the nation's economy.

He goes on to say that the figures fail to explore the impacts of international student movements or the popular 457 visa subclass.

Mr Pascoe also points out that humanitarian arrivals do not get a mention, nor does the flow of migrants from New Zealand - with many leaving home in search of better job prospects.

Professionals in the field know that many of these figures can be directly impacted by the state of the national economy - and given the current resource boom it is unusual to see that these movements were not taken into consideration.

Expanding on the topic of migration movements, Mr Pascoe wrote: "The decline in population growth from the bubble's peak in 2008 has been an often overlooked factor in businesses feeling times were much harder.

"It's also been part of the reason the unemployment rate hasn't risen as much as our low rate of employment growth would generally cause."