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I blame migrants
A recent article gives us some insight as to what might be driving the "population" debate.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/20/scott-morrison-flags-cutting-migration-in-response-to-population-concerns.
You can read the article ( hyperlink above) but this is what leapt out at me...
"Migration levels are already almost 30,000 a year below the current cap. Australia accepted just 162,417 permanent migrants in the past year, a decrease of more than 10% on the previous year and the lowest level in a decade.
The Prime Minister said the number would be lower in the next 12 months as a consequence of the adjustments. Population growth was essential for economic success, he said, but voters in Australia’s biggest cities “are concerned about population”.
“They are saying: enough, enough, enough. The roads are clogged, the buses and trains are full. The schools are taking no more enrolments.
“I hear what you are saying. I hear you loud and clear. That’s why we need to improve how we manage population growth in this country.”
But while signalling the reduction, Morrison stressed the benefits of migration to the Australian economy, and said the winding back must not “disadvantage those states that are looking for greater growth and that we have the mechanisms in place to direct new migrants to the areas where there are the jobs, services and opportunities”.
“That’s why the planning partnership with the states is so important,” Morrison said.
The Prime Minister said Australia needed steady population growth to sustain economic growth, particularly over the next three decades as the ageing of the population impacts of workforce participation."
So if I understand the article and assuming that the PM is being quoted correctly what is driving this...(in summary) is that "voters" (you and I) are concerned about "clogged roads, full trains and buses and schools not taking more enrolments".
I am concerned about congestion, the lack of services, delays etc...however, I am not sure that the blame for this is to be laid at the feet of the migration program. Assuming an extra 180K people per year coming to live in Australia and maybe 100k coming to Sydney (DOHA will have the numbers) my personal view that the state of infrastructure in NSW for example, the roads, the congestion etc are, in my view the tail end of a failure over many decades of the States and Commonwealth to invest in the nuts and bolts that make our society work. In short by all means blame migrants but consider what is your Government spending on infrastructure? If there is spending now what about the future after everything is sold?
As to the plan to divert migrants to regional Australia , we already have RSMS in place but no control over political expediency. Remember when the incoming WA Labor Government stepped on WA's regional status and in effect put to the sword all unresolved RSMS applications.
It is about time the Commonwealth started to play the long game and ensure that the Migration programme is harmonised with the States and that we all start singing from the same song sheet. A step in the right direction would be the simplification of the Migration Act and regulations with the State Development offices in each state having independent input and the Commonwealth engaging in consultation in good faith!
I express my concerns at the ballot box but at the moment I would not trust any of them to do a good job. They are all too flakey, self absorbed and have no vision.
Elections are coming up fast...now is the time for you to speak to your Local Federal member.
Immigration blog
Yep, all this political migrant blaming ball game is a bit of a worry. But apart from your concerns Chris, I also worry about the plunging Melbourne and Sydney property prices that are partly the result of thinning temporary visa holder population, causing increasing rental vacancy rates. ABS data still quotes March 2018 numbers, but what those up in the wires don't know yet, we agents down the trenches see clearly already. That hard talk and even harder restrictions do work, and students, working holiday makers, and even 457 holders are leaving Sydney and Melbourne in droves, with hardly any replacement coming. Polititians are tossing with a mere 30k difference in immigrant numbers, but what they miserably fail to count is the hundreds of thousands living here on temporary visas and holding out in ever increasing adversity for one and only hope: to catch one precious place of that permanent migration program. Hope has power. Why millions of people buy a lottery ticket for that one prize to be won? Because they hope that one winner will be them. The more reasonable are the odds for the cost involved, the more will be inclined to take the risk. But take away that hope by severely decreasing the likelihood of success, and the cost will be simply too much risk for little chance of reward. And it is already happening.
Just look at what had gone down in WA. Labor were loudly bragging about excluding all those unwanted migrants who "take away Australian jobs" (we do love this mantra don't we?), and just a few years on the Premier has admitted somewhat sheepishly that they did not expect such an economical fall-out for all temporary visa holders leaving the state in the wake of their hope been taken away. Now they try to lure them back with promises of permanent visa invitations if they have completed local studies, but the damage is done, doubt that many will fall for it, I for one don't trust them a bit and surly won't recommend that pathway to my clients. That what happened in WA is a warning prelude to what will go down in NSW and VIC, only with much higher magnitude and duly devastating consequences, and yet again nobody pays attention for they are way too occupied with their short term populist agendas to win the elections.
Just a theoretical question: What would do a 100K+ population decline to the Sydney/Melbourne property prices, and consequently to household spending and yet consequently to unemployment rate? Because that is what's on the cards right now. Do we have overpopulation in the east coast and over-inflated house prices as a result? Yes we do. Do we go down hard if we just simply pop it and let a massive part of this population to flow out in a short time? You bet we do. That is my real worry. The mother of all depressions that comes in the wake of such irresponsible hard talk on immigration. After-all, regardless of the superiority complex of all those with decision making authority in the immigration arena, the arrogance and condescending tone will go only so far until the balance of cost and reward tips for would be migrants, and they start to vote with their feet. It will be a lovely train wreck to watch when the temporary visa holders say "enough enough enough".